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Fireworks concept presented at ICCC7 and ICCC10

First presentation at ICCC7 in Chicago, May 2012 On Monday evening, after a long day of lectures, I was given a chance to introduce the Fireworks concept to a few highly respected climate sientists, four of which were conference speakers.

Attendees: Prof. Dr Tom Segalstad (Univ. of Oslo), Prof. Dr Larry Gould (Univ. of

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Introduction

Welcome to ClimateTheory.net, the forum about my attempt to model climate in a completely new way, aiming to – eventually – calculate the real climate sensitivity of CO2.

This site was hastily and somewhat prematurely constructed in May 2012 in an attempt to present my thoughts about the mechanisms behind our climate to researchers

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Elevator Pitch

The innovation that is the core of the www.climatetheory.net site is “The Fireworks atmospheric radiation simulation”.

It is an easy to understand Excel spreadsheet that can calculate exactly how much radiation is emitted into space and how much is absorbed by the earth surface, by using one very simple formula only.

It can do so,

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The chapters summarised

1. The Fireworks Theory for greenhouse gases Explains how it is possible to describe the atmosphere by layers, defined by the average optical free path of greenhouse sensitive IR wavelengths. This takes temperature and pressure out of the equations and enables very accurate but simple radiation calculations.

2. The Fireworks atmospheric simulation Describes a simulation

Continue reading The chapters summarised

1. The Fireworks Theory for greenhouse gases

IR radiation behaviour I started with imagining how IR radiation would behave when radiated from the earth’s surface. Of course some wavelengths will radiate directly into space through the IR window. All the rest would at a certain point be absorbed by a greenhouse gas (GHG) molecule. Once absorbed, in an equilibrium situation,

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2. The Fireworks atmospheric simulation

Once absorbed by a GHG molecule, the GhIR energy will be re-radiated and absorbed very many times before it will be radiated out into space or be absorbed by the surface.

Describing this process quantitatively in formulas seemed to be impossible, at least for my mathematics skills. And as far as I know, even very

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3. The Fireworks simulation: Layer determination

I mentioned earlier that the simulation is extremely rational and accurate, but that all problems have been shifted to the determination of the number of layers.

First we have to address a basic problem: I am simulating the earth’s atmosphere by averaging very different situations. In the humid tropical regions, water vapour will be dominant,

Continue reading 3. The Fireworks simulation: Layer determination

4. The Fireworks simulation: Climate sensitivity

All this is of course primarily intended for the purpose of establishing the climate sensitivity of CO2.

So let’s assume that we manage to get an accurate representation of the number of layers, by using physics or empirical data. Then it is easy to double the number of layers that are attributed to CO2, and

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5. The Fireworks balance sheet: Climate sensitivity of CO2, including clouds

So far we only spoke about the radiation mechanisms. Of course we need to include clouds, albedo and so on.

In fact, that was what I actually started with, and that is how I found out that I needed a radiation simulation.

I put every significant climate aspect I knew in a spreadsheet, and made

Continue reading 5. The Fireworks balance sheet: Climate sensitivity of CO2, including clouds

6. Convection and the thermohaline circulation

As an “entrée” for the next chapter, I wanted to share some thoughts about oceanic convection.

I got to think about this topic, when discussing atmospheric convection with an oceanographer. It seemed better to talk to him about his field of expertise, so I tried to apply my ideas to the oceans, and the result

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7. Convection: the cooling feed back of CO2

After building my simulation and energy balance program, I was quite satisfied that they seemed to describe climate accurately, and showed all relations between the parameters, so I could experiment with them. Just one question was left to answer: how can we quantify the feedbacks that are active in climate, i.c. those of temperature and

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8. CO2 does not – directly – heat up the atmosphere

In almost all explanations of the greenhouse effect, it is somehow claimed that greenhouse gases (GHG) absorb IR radiation and therefore must heat up the atmosphere. Then, because of the heating up, the atmosphere will also radiate back more energy to the surface and heat it up. I think that is a wrong representation of

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9. The standard greenhouse theory reconsidered

In order to explain the physics of the greenhouse effect, it is often proposed that it works in the following way:

Standard greenhouse physics

 

Because, with an increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, there are more CO2 greenhouse molecules in the tropopause, they will radiate into space from a higher level (from

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10. Analysing the Hadley Cell

One of the assumptions about the way latent heat is radiated into space, is “deep convection”. Like the standard greenhouse theory that was described in chapter 9, this suggests that the main radiation into space is from high in the atmosphere, near or even above the tropopause.

I have always had my doubts about that.

Continue reading 10. Analysing the Hadley Cell

11. Analysing The (Missing?) Tropical Hot Spot

What is the hot spot debate about? Already for over a decade, all climate models have been predicting a significantly (100%) higher warming in the higher part of the troposphere than at the surface in the tropics. This is called “the tropical hot spot”.

All this time, balloon nor satellite measurements managed to find this

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